Fantasy File—Lamont Jordan: Overrated

Oakland running back Lamont Jordan is getting a lot of love in fantasy circles this preseason (Foxsports.com--#8 overall; Tristan Crocroft of espn.com--#9 overall; Dave Richard of cbssportsline.com--#9 overall). Let me get this straight, Lamont Jordan is a first round fantasy back? When did this happen? You’re telling me I should draft this guy ahead of Cadillac Williams or Ronnie Brown and I won’t have an ulcer before the season is over?

So, how did we get here? During his time with the Jets, Jordan was understudy to Curtis Martin. In fantasy terms this meant that thousands of us were taking late-round fliers on the guy and then running kabob skewers through the knees of our Curtis Martin voodoo dolls. After a few years as a fantasy tease, Jordan signs with the Raiders, he finally gets his starting chance and blows up:

Lamont Jordan 2005: Rushing--272 carries, 1025 yards, 9 TDs
Receiving--70 receptions, 563 receiving yards, 2 TDs

A very good year. Over 1,500 total yards. Double-digit TDs. Frankly, those numbers justify a first round pick, but I don’t think he can match them this season.

Why you shouldn’t believe the hype:

1. Lamar Smith Phenomena: Remember Lamar? In 2000, Smith had 309 rushes for 1139 yards and 14 TDs for the Dolphins--all career highs. Naturally, Smith was a hot property in 2001, but only produced 968 yards and 6 TDs. As Madden would say: “Sometimes when a guy has a career year, that’s his career year”.

In 2005 Lamont Jordan had career highs in carries, yards, TDs, receptions and receiving yards--career best numbers by wide margins. Pundits ranking him in the top ten do so under the assumption that Jordan will duplicate or better these numbers. That’s a pretty big assumption. This is a guy who has never been a 300+ carry guy. He’s had only one year as the feature back, so it remains to be seen if this is a trend or a mirage. Do you want to risk your first rounder to find out?

2. New offensive coordinator Tom Walsh.

Lets review the resume of the guy who will be calling the plays for the Raider's offense this season:

The good: Walsh was with the Raiders during a span when the club went 124-88 and won the division four times.

The bad: In 1994 the Triplets defeated the Bills in the SuperBowl; Friends premieres on NBC; O.J. went for a ride in the Bronco; Kurt Cobain off'd himself;—and it was also the last year that Tom Walsh coached in the NFL…yikes.

The ugly: I’m not even kidding. Walsh got canned along with Shell in 1994 and hasn’t been in the NFL since. Walsh’s most recent gig was running a bed & breakfast.

Question: How do you feel about drafting Jordan in round one knowing that his offensive coordinator has been on a twelve year hiatus from the league? Let some other guy draft him only to have the Raiders' announce that they are installing an offense based around the Full House backfield.

3. Vertical Passing: Art Shell has come in promising to install a more vertical passing attack. Doesn’t every new Raiders’ coach promise to air it out? Its just one of those things you have to say under the circumstances, like when #1 overall draft picks claim to be excited about joining whatever team had the worst record the previous year. Anywho, there are three good reasons to believe Shell will make good on his promise. First, when Randy Moss isn’t whipping up fruit smoothies, he’s the league’s best downfield threat. Second, when people analyze Aaron Brooks they always praise his deep ball—in his case it’s a nice way of saying Brooks is horribly inaccurate. I think its a safe bet the club won't feature swing passes to the halfback this year--when your QB completes only 55% of his passes, you need some of those to be downfield. Finally, Al Davis. The only thing keeping this guy alive (aside from about a pint of blood a day and the occassional defibrillation) is the dream that he will one day see his Raiders contending again—and doing it with an aggressive vertical passing game. What does this mean for Jordan? Fewer balls his way in the passing game and maybe even fewer touches as pass/run ratio skews.

4. Did I mention Aaron Brooks? One of my favorite football writers is KC Joyner “the football scientist”. Joyner watches every game and logs statistics of his own creation. For QBs he has created a “bad decision metric”—a stat for every poor throw, read or decision a QB makes. Someday Joyner may rename the BDM in honor of Aaron Brooks. This is a guy known for throwing a pass backwards in ’04, and infuriating the fans with his nonchalant attitude after tossing a pick. The guy was benched in ’05 in favor of Todd Bouman for crying out loud. I don’t think relocating to the Bay Area will help any. After stinking it up in the Raiders most recent preseason game he told the sideline reporter that he really didn’t need to work on anything. Really Aaron? How about your crappy completion percentage (career 56.4%)? Or last year’s 13/17 TD-to-INT ratio? No? Okay, carry on. If Brooks holds to form, the Raiders will struggle and there will be fewer carries for Jordan as they play from behind.

5. Madden factor: Imagine you’re doing building a team from scratch in Madden. If you rank the RBs 1-10, is Jordan on the list? I didn’t think so. He just doesn’t come to mind when you are thinking high-ceiling or game-breaking talent. Amongst 2005 top fifteen rushers, only Jordan and Willis McGahee finished with an average yards-per-carry of under 4.0 (both were at 3.8). His longest rush of the season was 26 yards (lowest amongst the top 20 rushers in ’05) and he only had 4 rushes over 20 yards. The reality is that Jordan is a serviceable back who had a big year because the team fed him the ball both on the ground and through the air. Circumstance, rather than talent, was the driving factor behind his ’05 season and circumstances have changed.

If you find yourself picking toward the end of the first round, steer clear of Jordan. He’s fine as a second-rounder, but you will be disappointed in the return on your investment if you take him in the first round. While he outperformed guys like Stephen Jackson, Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown last year, he won’t pull it off again.

A brief post about baseball

1. Reds reliever "Everyday" Eddie Guardado is on the DL for 15 days. Tonight, the Reds went into the ninth leading by a run and brought in...Scott Schoeneweis? Boasting a six-plus ERA, he nonetheless managed to strike out two and retire the side for the save. I'm going to have a coronary.
2. I read today that the little league world series includes a player for the American-Arabian team who is 6-foot 8-inches. Seriously? And we're supposed to believe he's thirteen? Did we learn nothing from Danny Almonte?

I'm shocked to find gambling going on in this establishment!

According to espn.com, sprinter Marion Jones has tested positive for a banned substance EPO. Through her attorneys she stated "I was shocked when I was informed about the positive 'A' sample".

A few weeks back, Floyd Landis was also shocked and unable to explain his postitive test (for high testosterone).

Really? Is this shocking? Two jocks win big events in their 30's--in two of the world's dirtiest sports in terms of doping--and there is shock? Landis was given up for dead as the Tour de France wound down. Then, arthritic hip and all, he comes back at the last possible minute. Jones, she of the indignant press conference at the 2000 Olympics in Sydney, can't claim that she is a victim of guilt by association this time. Not unless she wants to disavow her own bodily fluids.

Bengals--Preseason Game 2

Watched parts of the game. Here are some quick thoughts:

1. He hasn't been overwhelming, but I'm beginning to believe that Anthony Wright will be at least okay at QB. I don't think he's anything special, but I think a journeyman can put up some decent numbers in this offense. The protection is solid and the skill positions are deep with talent--and they make an average QB look above average. I don't think he can be counted on to win games by himself, but I think he'll be able to generate some points.
2. The defense is looking pretty much like last years D--feast or famine, they'll make some big plays and give up some too.
3. The O-line reserves look pretty good. Rookie Whitworth started at LT and project Andrews started at RT and the protection looked pretty good. I was curious to see that the second center to play was Ben Wilkerson, not Eric Ghiacuic. Ghiacuic has the experience edge, having spelled Richie Braham last year, but he played at guard last night instead of center.
4. Related thought: its great they have this depth, however, sadly, it probably means Eric Steinbach or Willie Anderson (or both) aren't going to stay past this season.
5. Domata Peko continues to rack up numbers as a backup, I wonder if he'll get a start in the preseason. Cincy could certainly use the depth at DT.

Bengals--Preseason Game 1

Cincinnati hosts Washington in Game 1 of the preseason. Here are my thoughts as the fist half unfolds...

Redskins get the ball and drive at will on the Bengals D.
Yippie!! Keiwan Ratliff intercepts a ball along the sideline and runs it back 30+ yards.
Ayieee!! Clinton Portis makes the tackle on Ratliff and has to leave the game--I've been targeting Portis with the 4th pick in my upcoming fantasy draft. This marks the first time in my life I have gotten this freaked out by a player injury WHEN I HAVEN"T EVEN DRAFTED THE GUY YET!

5:36 left in 1st Qt. Bryan Robinson pressures backup QB Todd Collins and forces an incredibly poor throw that is intercepted by DT John Thornton. That's two picks so far...nice to see the Cincy D is at least picking up where it left off in that department.

5:29 Hold on Bengals LG Eric Steinbach--where was that hold last season when Kimo was lunging at your QB Steinbach!

5:23 QB Anthony Wright makes a throw to on a hook route to Chris Henry. Henry manages to catch the ball AND avoid picking up any new criminal charges on the play. Bravo!

4:20 3rd and 8, Wright drops back and is immediately sandwiched by two pass rushers. Nice turnstyle action there O-Line!

3:30 The Redskins' return man makes the poor decision to let the punt sail over his head, and Cincy downs it at the two yard line. Not to worry buddy, your next high pressure decision will involve whether to double bag a customers jug of milk at the Piggly Wiggly.

2:14 SAFETY! 'Skins QB Collins is at it again. When faced with pressure in his own endzone he flings the ball at the back of one of his O-lineman (nearly picked, again). Intentionaly grounding, two points for the good guys.

2:07 No Antonio Chatman on the return, where the hell is he? In his stead we have Keiwan "my max. return is 5 yards" Ratliff.

1:56 Bob Bratkowski has been playing Techmo Bowl in the offseason--he just called a flea flicker and Wright hits T.J. Houshmandzedah for a big gain (52 yards).

Evidently Palmer's druthers is to play three quarters of the third preseason game, then about a quarter in the final game and be ready to go for the season opener.

Cris Collinsworth reports that Palmer worked out before the game. Palmer related that his work was more extensive than anything he'd done thusfar, and he was very pleased with the outcome.

0:59 Wright hits Chris Henry on a fade in the endzone. He seems to be getting a rythym. Nice touch on the throw.

I note that Washington's O-line seems to have no problem shoving Cincy's D around on running plays. Sure, its early, and Sam Adams isn't playing, but I fear we will still leak like a sieve against the run (again). If so, Carson's comeback may not matter.

2nd Quarter

Washington's drive ends when Collins stumbles coming away from center. Jason Campbell's going to pass him on the depth chart without ever taking the field.

14:14 Cincy goes no huddle. I love this. They had some success with it last year. I'd like to see it every game, if only for a couple drives, as a homage to the Sam Wyche days. Also, if Marvin Lewis could berate the fans at halftime of at least one game a year, just for old time's sake.

13:50 Chris Henry is beating CB Kenny Wright like a drum. First the TD, now Henry blows by Wright, forcing the defender to mug him to avoid a big play. Did you know that Henry's carrying a concealed weapon charge in Florida involves allegations that he was in possession of a loaded Lugar. Seriously? A Lugar? Is he trying to build up his street cred in Leipzig?

13:44 Nice out route for a 1st down, Wright to Henry.

Cincy scores again, field goal makes it 12-0

12:01 Andrea Kramer reports Portis's injury is to his shoulder.

11:57 Cincy's D looks pretty good so long as Todd Collins is playing QB against them.

11:12 Spoke too soon. Collins nails throw for first down on 3rd & long.

9:41 Rookie 1st-rounder Jonathan Joseph breaks up a pass on a fly route. Nice.

6:36 Ahmed Brooks is in the game at middle 'backer. Nice play to break up a dump-off pass. He left Virginia early after being kicked off the team for failed drug tests. The Bengals figure they can platoon him and Odell Thurman as they alternate time on suspension...

5:44 Suddenly Collins is having an easy time completing 3rd and long (two in a row).

Domata Peku, DT out of MSU is in the game and sporting a crazy Samoan pony mullet. Domato was involved in an incident while in college in which he was caught urinating on a building and then fled from police. In light of the other Bengals off-the-field issues, I find that story adorable.

4:13 Madden tells the story of how Bengals DE Frostee Rucker got his name--something about his dad insisting he be unique (that's right, Frostee is his given name). Madden elects not to share the anecdotes about how Frostee is alleged to abused and sexually assaulted women.

4:01 'Skins get a figgie. Washington 3, Cincinnati 12.

3:04 Wright completes an eight-yard hook to Kelly Washington. More impressive than the throw was the presnap read Wright made (recognizing the blitz) and audibling to the hook knowing he'd have man coverage. (Yes, I'm totally trying to talk myself into the whole "we could be alright if Wright runs the show for the first couple weeks" thing. Just try to humor me).

2:30 Wright's first real scramble nets ten yards and a first down.

1:11 Kramer reports Portis's shoulder is separated.

Dr. Madden explains to an attentive Al Michaels "A separation is where [the shoulder] separates..."

Man, I love football.

P.S. Wright finished 9-for-16 with 101 yards, 1 TD and no picks.

Joyner discusses Edge & Cardinals' running game

KC Joyner, the "Football Scientist" and espn.com contributor, has a new article that goes into great detail about the struggles of the Cardinals' O-line in 2005. If you don't have Espn Insider, you won't be able to access the article--and I really recommend getting Insider. Joyner alone makes it worthwhile. He analyzes a lot of game film, and has created his own statistics for rating players--essentially doing for football what sabremetrics has done for baseball. I can't recommend him enough.

While Joyner has some optimism that the Cardinals will succeed in implementing a zone blocking scheme (like the Colts), his article first addresses just how bad 'Zona's O-line was last year. By his metrics, the line consisted of one average performer and the remainder ranked near the bottom of the leage. The point of my earlier post was simply that their line is terrible, and simply adding James isn't going to give them a potent (or even competent) rushing attack. I simply disagree with Joyner as to whether the Cards can address this problem by implementing a new scheme. Even if they do, I suspect it may be weeks into the season before they enjoy any success.