Bengals Thoughts
Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com has a interview with head coach Marvin Lewis--find it here. While not exactly a revelation, the interview does put some questions to rest while raising some others.
1. Marvin says he will stick with the 4-3. We have had talk of a move to a 3-4 base defense (or at least deploying it as a change of pace to the 4-3) for two seasons now. If you believe Hobson, Lewis wanted to make the switch last offseason, but, when the Niners drafted OLB Manny Lawson in front of them, they didn't feel they had the personel to make the switch.
For myself, I think the Bengals tipped their hand on this when they re-upped DE Robert Geathers to the tune of 6 years and $32.5 million dollars. He had a career year (10.5 sacks) as a pass rushing specialist (but not as an every down guy). At 23 years old, I'm sure the Bengals feel he can grow into an every down contributer, but I doubt they dropped that much cash on him while contemplating a move to the 3-4. I don't think he projects as a 3-4 end or OLB, so, if they were seriously considering a shift in philosophy, I think they would have held off on Geathers.
Its clear to me (and anyone who watched the Bengals) that they need to make some changes on D. A 3-4 is intriguing, but I don't see them as having the personel. Sam Adams has never played the nose in a 3-4. Their best defensive ends (Geathers and Justin Smith) are probably to light to play end in the 3-4. Worst of all, they were really thin at linebacker in '06 and moving to a 3-4 would only aggravate this issue. As it stands, with Pollack(back) and Thurman(crack) in doubt for '07, they will need to add some talent this offseason just to fill three starting spots.
Based on the foregoing, I think Lewis has made the smart decision to stick with the 4-3. That said, I would like to have seen some shake up in the coaching staff that has failed to produce a competent defense (like ditching defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan).
2. Tory James is gone/Odell Thurman???/Justin Smith could get franchise tag. No surprise on James. He should be remembered as one of Lewis's better free agent signings; a guy who brough a veteran presence to the secondary and helped make them the opportunistic bunch that made a heck of a lot of interceptions. However, his guile and experience have extended his career past the physical limitations of his soon-to-be 34 year-old body. Although his numbers were still good (4 ints, 10 passes defensed), he was always giving eight yard cushions to receivers and lacked the athleticism to do anything more than keep receivers in front of him and try to capitalize on bad throws. His spot belongs to Jonathon Joseph now, a guy who has the athleticisim to play very aggressively (o ints, but 20 passes defensed) and could really blossom in his sophmore season.
When asked about Odell Thurman, Lewis was not as decisive as he was with James. As Hobson put it "Lewis seemd to hold the door ajar for him". I will be really disappointed if Thurman is allowed to rejoin the team. How can you give him a slot and reps on the team when he is one stupid mistake away from another hefty suspension--and he has shown a propensity for making such mistakes? Now, its possible Lewis is being coy simply because Thurman is still under contract and the team is waiting to cut/release him at a later date. On the other hand, Lewis may be sending the dual message to Thurman that he can rejoin the team but he can expect to have Lewis hold his feet to the fire. I'd rather the team just dump him and all his distractions now, cap consequences be damned.
As for franchise-tagging Justin Smith, this may just be posturing or it could be legit. After they signed Geathers, given the numbers involved, I figured they were leaning toward letting Smith go and moving Geathers into his slot. They tried Geathers as a full-time RE in '05, but his numbers suffered. However, he was just 22 at the time, and he will be 24 at the start of the '07 season. A player can mature a lot in that period of his life. I still have a nagging feeling that they might let Justin Smith go for just this reason--either let him enter free agency or make a play to tag him and trade him. For myself, I think he's a rare high motor guy on the team. He doesn't have the sexy numbers of some other ends in the league, but he plays the run well, gives consistent effort and avoids getting arrested (ok, so the bar is set pretty low). I'd like to see them sign Smith long term. The pro of having both is that they make a nice combo on passing downs. The con is that they are both best suited to playing right end (and neither really thrives at left end), so you have to have a run-stuffer type to play left end on rushing downs.
3. Lewis acknowledges he needs to avoid guys with character issues. Gee, ya think? I'd go a step further and say not only must he avoid poor character guys in the draft, but he needs to consider jettisonning a few from his current roster. I boot Odell Thurman (a no-brainer, he is sure to screw up again and face another hefty suspension). I'd be acquiring another quality WR to replace Henry (its just a matter of time before he's facing a year long suspension)--but I'd hold off on jettisoning Henry until you have a competent replacement lined up (not a perfect or principled solution, but that is the corner Lewis has backed himself into. A good third WR is a must in this offense, but Henry can't be trusted to stay out of trouble). I'd part company with Frostee Rucker and A.J. Nicholson as well. Granted, they are young guys who you just drafted in '06, but they have yet to add value on the field and it will only become harder to get rid of them as the club invests more time into grooming them. The rest of the arrestees (Steinbach, Deltha O'Neal, Jonathon Joseph, Reggie McNeal) at least their infractions are (relatively) minor. I can see giving each another chance--though O'Neal and McNeal are on thin ice simply because they didn't perform well in '06. Steinbach is probably gone in free agency (with Whitworth taking the LG slot). If he does go, and the Bengals jettison Thurman, Rucker and Nicholson, at least they can say that they have rid themselves of a big chunk of their baggage. Add Henry to the list and they can claim they've ditched the worst of the worst. I don' make light of drug possession or DUI's, but they are somewhat more forgiveable in my eyes than the conduct of Henry (number of times), Rucker (violence towards women), Nicholson (felony burglary) and Thurman (repeat substance abuse issues).
This is a big offseason for the Bengals. I hope Lewis stays true to his word in the interview and doesn't go crazy in free agency. The key to free agency is who you keep, not who you acquire (see, Redskins, Washington). Even more important is for Lewis to have a solid draft. Without a third round pick (used in the supplemental draft to acquire Ahmed Brooks) they need to not only avoid bad character guys, but try to add some good character, leadership types. It would also be nice to see a player or two who can contribute right away (a la Jonathon Joseph).
More on the draft later...
