Week 3 Picks

After last week’s 11-5 I’m now 20-12 on the season. I apologize for the tardiness and brevity of my picks both this week and last (and for the fact they aren’t that funny. I had my first murder trial last week and both the long days in court and the prep time have eaten into my leisure. The lesson, the less I prepare for picks the better I do making them.

My normal practice is to take all week writing these: early in the week, I make a few notes about the prior week’s games, then really get into writing it Thursday night. This hasn’t been the case the last two week. This week I’m just getting into this Sunday morning. I spent Saturday drafting and executing a couple warrants with our police division. I had occasion to visit an apartment that ranks among the nastiest and most cockroach infested I’ve ever seen. No particularly funny stories from it, but a word to the wise—If you think you are being slick by hiding your illegal drugs in the mattress of the baby bed you are sadly mistaken, it’s the first place the police look. Its an enormous relief when you do find stuff, the only thing worse than spending your Saturday in filthy, cockroach infested apartment is spending your Saturday in a filthy, cockroach infested apartment and having nothing to show for it.

In Week 1, I loved the underdog and the underdog loved me. For Week 2 I went the other way and chose a large number of favorites and they came through in a big way. What will be the flavor this week?

Chicago –3 at MINNESTOA Here is an intriguing matchup of NFC North “powers”—and our first of three contests between undefeated clubs. Chicago has looked like a world-beater, but playing the Packers and Lions will do that to you. Everyone is high on Grossman, but prior to his 4 TD outburst against Detroit, this guy had a 5-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio and he has yet to stay healthy for more than three games in a season—so lets rein it in. As for Minnesota, they are just feisty enough on both sides of the ball to be decent and decent translates into 9-10 wins in the NFC North. Still, the Bears sport a premier D, the other units on the field are pretty average. I’m counting on the Bears and the –3.

PITTSBURGH –1.5 vs. Cincinnati Pittsburgh certainly didn’t wow anyone last week, but I think Cowher threw Big Ben in to shake off the rust so he’d be ready for the Bengals this week. The Jags D is no joke, and I think Steelers will have more luck against Cincy’s (albeit improved) D. The big issue for Pittsburgh is “finding themselves” on offense. It seems like every other season Cowher toys with some flavor of wide open offense and every time he comes back to the smash-mouth running style. Problem being, I don’t think Willie Parker is well suited to that style, and Cowher knows this. Hence the acquisition of Najeh “I crapped in some chick’s closet” Davenport. He may be bigger, but he isn’t half the short-yardage threat that Bettis was. As for the Bengals, they have some critical injuries. Dexter Jackson, who has been outstanding at safety (in spite of Matt’s derogatory comments during the offseason). The Jackson injury hurts us doubly because it takes a good player off the field and inserts a very poor one (Kevin Kaesveharn). Richie Braham is a huge loss. Eric Ghiacuic has played well when given the opportunity, but the center needs to not only play well, but make all the blocking adjustments and that’s where Cincy will miss Braham. Still, I’ve got to go homer and pick Bengals and the +1.5.

BUFFALO –5.5 vs NY Jets Both clubs made decent showings in losses to the Patriots, and each won a game against poor competition (Miami and Tennessee respectively). Losman won the battle of the shaky QBs last week against Daunte Culpepper, but I like Pennington and the suddenly resurgent Jets passing attack. Jets and the –5.5.

Carolina –3.0 at TAMPA BAY I don’t like betting on shaky QBs, I really don’t like betting on shaky QBs who are being verbally emasculated after every other play. Panthers and the –3.0.

DETROIT –7 vs. Green Bay Is Detroit the better team? Yes. Does Detroit deserve a seven point spread over anyone under any circumstances? Proabably no. Packers and the +7.

Washington –4 at HOUSTON Somewhere between last year’s playoff run and this year’s preseason, Mark Brunell woke up and realized he’s 36 years old. Unfortunately, the Redskins have failed to make this realization. In fact, they have aggravated it by introducing the veteran to a new and unfamiliar offense. According to Redskins backup (and former Chief) Todd Collins, it takes about a season to grasp Al Saunder’s offense. Great news for Brunell who will turn 38 about the time the system sinks in. As for Houston, good call passing on Bush. I don’t know why you’d want to have the next Gayle Sayers in your backfield, or a guy who, in spite of some college-era off field issues, is a great face for a franchise on your team. After all, you guys just picked up Ron Dayne and he won a Heisman, too. Redskins and the –4.

INDIANAPOLIS –7 vs Jacksonville The Jags usually managed to challenge the Colts an this is their first matchup post-Edge. I like the Jags to cover with the +7.

MIAMI –11 vs Tennessee Remember when the experts thought the Dolphins, with the addition of Culpepper, were ready to challenge the Patriots for dominance in the AFC East? How’s that working out for ‘ya? Here we have another game in which I detest betting on either QB (Collins or Culpepper) so where do you go? I think Tennessee is in full House of Usher mode, but do I want to bet on Miami AND give 11 points? I think Miami is the better team, but Culpepper is crazy bad right now—I like Tennessee to cover the +11.

Baltimore –6.5 at CLEVELAND In spite of the 2-0 start, people are way to into the Ravens. This offense is still crappy and still can’t finish (only 4 TDs and 6 figgies through 2 games). McNair is an improvement over Boller, but the tools around him are subpar. Despite the high praise heaped on the passing game, McNair’s numbers are pretty pedestrian (55% completion and 74.4 passer rating) in spite of lousy competition (Bucs and Raiders). The D shows some promise with 1^st Rounder Wimbley making his presence felt all over the place, but the offense is messier than Paris Hilton at a Golden Globe after party. Ravens stingy D and the –6.5.

ARIZONA –4.5 vs St. Louis I’d like to take this opportunity to crow about my own prediction that Edge would struggle behind that line in Arizona. How’s that 70 yards per game, 1 TD and 3.1 per carry treating you? Stephen Jackson, however, is living up to the billing, except that he has been blanked in the TD department thusfar. I think the Rams and +4.5 sounds good.

Philadelphia –6.0 at SAN FRANSISCO Another fantasy crow, I sang the praises of Antonio Bryant during the preseason (gotta love #1 receivers on bad teams) and he’s come through thus far with 245 yards and a TD—a steal in the later rounds. And I love him against a banged up Eagles secondary. I’m not sure I like Philly after their 4^th quarter collapse last week, not enough to take them as a six-point favorite on the road against a Niners squad that is suddenly frisky. Niners and the +6.

SEATTLE –3.5 vs NY Giants Seattle has mustered just 30 points in two games…against Arizona and Detroit. Not exactly lighting it up. But hey, they get to incorporate Deion Branch and his career best 998 yards and 5 TDs into the system—so watch out! They might crack 24 points this week. I like the Giants to ride their big ‘mo from last week and win this one outright. Giants and the +3.5.

NEW ENGLAND –7 vs. Denver I know TSG claimed the Pats offense would click with the two-tight end gimmick, but we have yet to see it. I’m not sure it works outside of the PS2. Aside: a favorite strategy of mine in the NCAA football series is to coach the Miami Redhawks and aggressively recruit tight ends. For whatever reason, a blue chip tight end is easier to come by than a blue chip WR. You can also make due with tight ends that have speed and hands, but little blocking ability. You run single back with two TEs and two WRs. Your TEs are you bread-and-butter guys (the simple out is great for moving the chains) and your WRs just need to stretch the field. While this is great in Atari-land, it doesn’t seem to translate to the NFL as Tom Brady is learning and Richie Kotite could have told him. Jake Plummer is a wreck, Denver’s D is a mess (how are all those former Brown’s lineman working out for ya?). I’m not confident due to the big spread, but I’d rather bet on Brady—Patriots and the –7.

Atlanta –3.5 at NEW ORLEANS The linemakers must be letting the emotional return of MNF to Nawlins get the better of them, -3.5 is entirely too modest a spread. Both clubs are 2-0, but the Saints have beaten woeful Green Bay and Cleveland clubs (by a combined 12 points) while Atlanta has convincingly thumped Carolina and Tampa Bay. Falcons and the –3.5.

Week 2 Picks

Click-Clack! I think you hear me coming! I managed to go 9-7 in week one thanks to a strong finish (3-0 in the primetime games). Can I actually sting together two plus-.500 weeks in a row?

I like the road dogs last weekend, picking seven of the nine road teams who were getting points. Those seven picks pretty much carried me through the week (I went 5-2 with my road underdogs). With only 4 road teams favored this week, I’ve got twelve road dogs to choose from—but that trend can’t possibly continue, can it?

What else did we learn last week? The Raiders may shatter the record for the biggest spread ever in an NFL game (they play Baltimore this week on the road, how many points would you need to bet on Oakland? +15? +20?). You’ve got to feel for Packers’ fans. They are going to watch Favre toss up 25 picks, the team go 3-13 and they still won’t get the #1 pick, thanks to the tandem of Art Shell and Aaron Brooks.

Buffalo +6.5 at MIAMI The first Culpepper vs. Losman tussle. I’d much rather be betting against both. Losman has never shown anything. Culpepper picked up last week right were he left of in ’05 (sucking). I was decidedly underwhelmed by the ‘Fins O-line against Pittsburgh. However, the Bills showed a real knack last week for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Dolphins D has more holes than in years past, but Losman isn’t the quarterback to exploit them. Miami will get out in front and thus avoid putting Culpepper in a situation to lose the game late. Miami and give the –6.5

Steve Smith’s Hamstring +1.5 at MINNESOTA The latest word is that Steve Smith is questionable for this game. With him, Carolina’s offense is scary. Without him, Carolina’s offense is scary to watch. I’ll take Minnesota, give the –1.5, and give the bad hammy.

Cleveland +10.5 at CINCINNATI Warning: Homer pick! The Bengals won ugly last week, but that is a good thing. Last year they won games with offense and with turnovers. Last week the defense actually managed to contain a premier rusher and force some punts. Its just one week, but if the Bengals’ D can jump from 28^th overall to somewhere in the middle teens, they will be a formidable unit. Cleveland on the other hand remains a work in progress. They need Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to live up the their hype, and they are going to have to come to the painful realization that Charlie Frye will not be the answer at QB. I see a big day for Rudi, and take Cincy and give the –10.5.

Detroit +8.5 at CHICAGO Detroit played Seattle tough, but I think that is more a measure of how Seattle will struggle early rather than a sign that Detroit is going to put together a good season. Chicago’s premier D is enough to carry the day. Bears and the –8.5.

Tampa bay +5.5 at ATLANTA Simms looked like a bigger train wreck than Courtney Love at the Pamela Anderson roast. Atlanta’s D will be able to continue his woes. Falcons and the –5.5.

Oakland +12.5 at BALTIMORE Let’s see, Art Shell-check. Aarron Brooks-check. Raiders on the road-check. Not to mention the league’s most formidable tandem of cancer-in-the-lockerroom wide receivers. If the line was Oakland +20, I’d have to think about it. Baltimore and give the -12.5. I’ll also take the over in the over/under on Aaron Brooks sacks. I don’t need to know what the number is, just go with the over.

NY Giants +3 at PHILADELPHIA The Eagle s sure looked good last week, but that was against the Texans, who’d have some trouble against the best Arena League teams right now. Much has been made of the Texans decision to pass on Reggie Bush, but how about the Eagles draft and offseason? Why the hell haven’t they acquired an every down back who is made out of porcelin? At least they addressed their wide receiver needs with the acquisition of Donte Stallworth, though I question if he can be consistent (or beat anyone but the Texans). I think Eli and the Gents will rebound and get their first W of the season. Giants and the +3.

New Orleans –2.5 at GREEN BAY The Packers are a mess. The team recently traded feelgood story Samkon Gado to the Texans for Vernon Morecey—the phrase “deck chairs on the Titanic” comes to mind. New Orleans will win this in a walk. Reggie Bush hysteria will reach fever pitch after a 120-yard 2-TD game. But lets remember it’s the Packers. Saints and the –2.5.

Houston +13.5 at INDIANAPOLIS The Texans suck. Colts and the –13.5.

Arizona +7 at SEATTLE I’m not sure what the hell happened in Week 1 for Seattle, but I think their narrow win over Detroit will wake them up. Edge or no Edge, Arizona can’t run the ball or stop their opponents. Seahawks and the –7.

St. Louis –3 at SAN FRANSISCO Did I not tell you that Antonio Bryant was a great sleeper pick at WR? Gotta love receivers on lousy teams, plenty of yards in garbage time every week. St. Louis is a better club this year simply because they’ve unloaded pass-whacky head coach Mike Martz. A more balanced offense should equal more wins and fantasy stardom for Stephen Jackson. Rams and the –3.

Damon Huard +10.5 at DENVER After Jake Plummer’s terrible opening day, I don’t think the Broncos should be a double digit favorite over anybody…except Damon Huard. Shannahan will be smart enough to patiently establish the run and protect Plummer from his worst enemy (himself). Broncos and the –10.5.

New England –6.5 at NY JETS The Pats D isn’t what it used to be and the offense is limping along with little talent at wide receiver (the phrase “and starting at wide receiver, Bam Childress” should send shivers down the spine of every Pats fan). I think the Jets can cover with the +6.5.

Tennessee +11.5 at SAN DIEGO I sense the Chargers will have some success playing Cowher-ball (protect your young quarterback with a strong running game and win games with your D). Chargers and the –11.5.

Washington +6.5 at DALLAS Dallas should rebound at home and Bledsoe should put of the calls for Tony Romo to replace him…at least for one week. Boys and the –6.5.

Pittsburgh –2.5 at JACKSONVILLE Injuries are the story here. Jacksonville won last year’s matchup at Pittsburgh, but Tommy Maddox was under center and pooping the bed. This year, Big Ben is expected to start and I don’t think his coming off an appendectomy is going to slow him down. On the other side, Jacksonville will be without one and possibly both starting defensive ends. This means they will be softer against the run than usual. While their win against the Cowboys last week was impressive, Pittsburgh is head and shoulders better than the Dallas (or any NFC team for that matter). Take Pittsburgh and give the –2.5

Ohio State 24, Texas 7: Some observations

1. At least one pregame scouting report on Espn.com gave the coaching edge to Mack Brown of Texas. Seriously? The guy who, up until last year, could never win the big game (Oklahoma), is better than the guy who dominates the big game (Tressel v. Michigan and in Bowl Games).

Mack Brown then promptly went out and called a terrible game. He has a redshirt freshman starting just his second game in Colt McCoy (great gay pornstar name), he has a massive line (avg. 315 pounds, and a plethora of good runners. His club also rushed well throughout the game (Selivn Young finished with 8.5 ypc, Jamaal Charles with 4.4--and those where about the same numbers at halftime). So, naturally, the guy puts it in the hands of his freshman QB instead of just pounding away (the only person who could stop Young and Charles last night was Mack Brown--thanks Mack). He wound up with 32 pass attempts to 31 rushes. Texas ran well all night, but Brown kept killing drives by calling passes when they just weren't necessary. He ends up outrushing OSU 172-79 and still loses the game (big time).

2. Congrats to James Larenitis for coming up big in the big game (FF, Int).

3. Troy Smith is now 7-1 against ranked opponents. And he seems to come up with a big game each time.

4. For all the "young/inexperience defense" hype that followed the Buckeyes into this one, I was of the opinion going in that the big youth/inexperience issue was with Texas at QB. This was born out with McCoy's performance. He tended to dink and dunk and really didn't stretch the field. As for OSU's offense, they gave up only one TD--and that should have been a field goal but for a phantom roughing the passer call on 3rd and goal.

5. What the hell happend to Mack Brown's face? A blister appeared above his lip out of nowhere. At the party I was at, it was the story of hte second half. My friend Greg was hosting a party for the game and we even Tivoed to confirm that the blister was not there at the start of the game. What was it? Did he take time out from making halftime adjustments to pop a whitehead? Did he have a sudden onset of herpes? Will Mack Brown become the spokesmodel for Famvir? Why isn' this the lead story on Sportscenter this morning.

Shameless kid photo

Thank You, Reds.

I'd like to thank the Reds for keeping it interesting as long as they have. By postponing their usual fall from contention until this late in the season, they've kept me entertained right up to the beginning of football season. Granted, they had to make some moves that amounted to mortgaging their future success (trading two everyday guys like Lopez and Kearns for some iffy bullpen help), but I think it was worth it to keep me entertained until September. Now, after their entirely predictable and disastrous West Coast swing (a Cincinnati staple), the Reds are out of the wild card lead and hopelessly behind the division leaders. Thus making it safe for me to put them aside and focus fully on football. Thanks fellas, for taking one for the team.

Live Blog: Opening Night (Dolphins v. Steelers)

8:30 I've made my week 1 picks (below). Enjoy at your own risk.

8:31 I can't believe it, but NBC has made me long for the Hank Williams Jr. opening music of yesteryear. They accomplished this feat by having Pink do their intro. Why? Does NBC view girls ages 12-18 as an untapped demographic for pro football?

8:34 So Madden and Michaels talk up the teams. Madden points out that Culpepper fills the Dolphins need at quarterback and provides team leadership. Do all football commentators have collective amnesia about his awful season last year?

8:39 Introductions, I notice Troy Polomalu is sporting the playoff beard in Week 1. Way to mix it up.

8:43 Dolphins first draft goes nowhere. Pittsburgh ball at the 22. What's the over/under on Charlie Batch for passing yards? 120? Maybe 6-for-15 and a pick?

8:46 Charlie Batch's first series goes 3-and-out. He's 0-1 if your keeping score.

8: 50 I drafted Fast Willie Parker in a FFB league this year. As a Cincy fan, this makes me a fantasy equivalent of a cheating husband. Not proud of it.

8:56 Batch's second drive goes 3-and-out. He's still 0'fer. Both teams have done nothing on their first two drives. We can chalk that up to jitters and good defense. That said, who will be shocked if it keeps up. This game could be flat out ugly. Maybe two defensive powerhouses were a poor scheduling choice for the opener.

[Break to put kids to bed]

9:12 What have I missed? Nothing. No suprise.

9:17 Touchdown! Batch to N. Washington for 27 yards. Why am I excited? I hate Pittsburgh and only Willie Parker is on my fantasy club and the 2 yards per carry aren't looking good right now.

9:23 Culpepper driving the Fins. Couple completions in a row. Brown isn't getting anything on the ground. His line is overmatched. Fantasy owners who drafted him in round one are getting itchy.

9:29 Santonio Holmes just fair caught a punt at the 6. Cowher is calming talking to him on the sidelines. Holmes is wearing Kordell Stewarts #10...nice choice. Do you think that threw the equipment guy off when Holmes asked for #10? "Seriously? You want Kordell's number? You realize we usually give that to the free agent rookie whose most likely to get cut. OK, if thats what you want."

9:33 Dolphins ball in Steeler territory. Lets see if Ronnie Brown can improve on his 7 carries for 7 yards...

9:35 Nice completion by Culpepper on 2 and 20. However, Joey Porter is totally jumping his snap count. If he doesn't mix up his cadence, he's going to get killed.

9:40 Pressure on Batch. He throws a dangerous incompletion. How Batchy.

9:42 Big return by Wes Welker (not a great football name). Culpepper makes a nice throw to Brown to set up first and goal.

9:43 Brown lines up as the FB and rushes for the score. Given that Batch and Washington hooked up for the first score, Ronnie probably has the first meaningful fantasy TD. Hooray Beer!

9:49 Parker busts a big gain (at last). Hooray Fantasy Football!

9:55 Batch passes to Ward along the backline of the endzone for six. Nifty throw. Batch, stop vulturing TDs from Fast Willie Parker! Nice work by the Steelers, the Champs answer the Dolphins score and retake the lead 14-7. I picked the Fins in this game, largely out of fear of Batch. He has been solid if unspectacular (7 for 15, 66 yards and 2 TDs). The real suprise for me has been how bad Miami's offensive line has looked thusfar (11 yards rushing so far).

10:01 Fins ball. Wes Welker in for Marty Booker (concussion) and makes a nifty move after the catch for 10+ yards and a nice gain. 1st and goal. He's going to be the #1 FFB free agent pick up tomorrow.

10:05 Fins have squandered 1st and goal and will settle for the figgie. The Steelers are giving him more pressure than his line can handle. The Fins need to get the running game going and maybe max protect on passing downs.

10:07 Al Michaels is doing his annual explanation to Madden of what confluence means (happens every time they visit Three Rivers Stadium). Somewhere in Northwest Ohio my friend J-Low is smiling.

Halftime

NFL: Week #1 Picks

Friends, the heat of August has given way to September. The evenings grow cooler, the leaves begin to turn, kids head off to school and at long last its time to renew my quixotic quest to go over .500 picking NFL games.

DISCLAIMER: The following NFL Picks are for entertainment purposes only. Readers are advised, in the strongest possible terms, against utilizing this information for gambling purposes. Not because gambling is wrong, but because the picks most certainly are.

Miami (+1) at PITTSBURGH The Steelers will emphasize the run and field position even more than normal in an effort to avoid putting backup QB Charlie Batch in bad situations (a “bad situation” for Batch is any situation in which he is asked to throw). However, I think the Dolphins have enough talent on defense that they will stop the Steelers if they go one-dimensional. The game will be, at some point, in Batch’s hands and that will be trouble. When the Fins have the ball I think Culpepper will get enough help from the running game to score some points.

The Pick: Miami +1. I’m not ecstatic to be backing Culpepper on the road after his abysmal decision-making last season, but Charlie Batch is a few notches shakier. Culpepper could rise to the occasion and return to his Pro Bowl form, the ceiling for Batch on the other hand is much lower (at best he will turn in mediocre numbers and avoid the killer turnover).

Denver (-3.5) at St. LOUIS Ok. Here is a fantasy football gripe. I’ve read a couple of sites that rate Stephen Jackson (1046 yards, 8 TDs) over Rudi Johnson (1458 yards, 12 TDs). Granted, I’m sure Jackson’s numbers will go up without Faulk stealing carries and without Mike Martz going all pass-whacky. However, isn’t Rudi a safer bet? What is the ceiling on Jackson? He needs a 40% bump in yardage just to equal Rudi. Why not go with the proven performer? On the other side, I love Denver’s addition of Javon Walker. Along with the ageless Rod Smith, the Broncos have everything—well, except their QB is guaranteed to choke in the playoffs. I’ll take Denver and the –3.5.

NY Jets (+3) at TENNESSEE If the U.S. military were to make Guantanamo detainees watch this game, it would violate 11 articles of the Geneva Convention. Take the Jets and the +3.

Atlanta (+6) at CAROLINA Big divisional matchup here. Carolina is just solid through-and-through. Its understandable that they are the chic pick to win the NFC. Steve Smith’s hammies are worrisome. If he goes down, their passing offense will be thinner than Nicole Ritchie after a week on Survivor. On the flip side, Atlanta has a good defense and a great running game. Their passing game is dysfunctional. You have a unique (albeit overrated) talent in Michael Vick, why not tailor the offense around him? Their passing game should be based on the Techmo Bowl Philadelphia Eagles. Everybody loved picking the Raiders and destroying people with the two-headed Marcus Allen/Bo Jackson backfield. I always picked the Eagles. Send the receivers deep and if no one is open, scramble with Randall Cunningham. That’s what they should to with Vick. It makes no sense to plug him in an offense that doesn’t utilize his strong arm and athletic ability. To steal a line from my buddy Matt, it’s like casting Samuel L. Jackson in a movie and not allowing him to swear.Carolina’s at home, Smith’s a gamer so he’ll play, I’ll take Carolina and the –6.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at KANSAS CITY Warning: author is a Bengals fan—homer pick to follow. I was at PBS for Carson Palmers preseason debut against Green Bay. I’ve never been to a preseason game before and I can’t imagine the crowds for a typical preseason game are anything like what I witnessed. The place was absolutely electric. Carson comes onto the field to a standing ovation. Carson enters the game to a standing ovation. Carson completes his first pass and bounces up from his first hit (same play) HUGE standing ovation. By way of analysis, I’m a little worried about Houshmanzedah’s availability (Questionable). The guy is critical to the passing attack. Green Bay doubled Chad Johnson and singled up Charles Woodson on TJ. TJ proceeded to light up Woodson for 90+ yards and a TD. They’ll miss him if he’s out. All the same, I’ll take my Bengals and the +2.5.

Seattle (-6) at DETROIT Detroit added a new coach in the off season, but this club’s problems go higher up than the guy calling the plays and wearing the ugly NFL licensed apparel on Sundays. This club will not be a winner until Matt Millen gets poop-canned. Drafting wide receivers high in the first round for three years running has to be one of the dumbest draft moves ever. Particularly so when two look like absolute busts. While that will be Millen’s legacy, I suspect Lions fans will rue the day he passed on Matt Leinart. Did I mention that the Lions D-Line coach was recently arrested for driving while au natural? No word on if their was a sock in the passenger seat. As for this game, the Madden jinx hasn’t hit yet, so I like Seattle to dominate this game. Take Seattle and the –6.

Philadelphia (-4) at HOUSTON Two teams that blew the offseason. Houston passed on Reggie Bush. A guy who looks like a gamebreaker and, perhaps more importantly, who could serve as the face of the franchise. In Philly, the Eagles pride themselves on being frugal in free agency. They did make something of a splash by adding Darren Howard at DE to pair with Jevon Kearse. They’ll be better at pressuring the QB, which is an absolute must given the amount of man coverage they use. Unfortunately, they did nothing to improve their offense. They threw the ball something like 63% of the time, were terrible rushing the ball and even sent engraved letters to opposing defenses inviting them to ignore the run and rush the passer. And were shocked, SHOCKED when their QB goes down with an injury. All that and they didn’t add a starter quality RB or WR in the offseason. Dumb. I still take the Eagles and the –4. But the Eagles will be lucky to go 6-10.

Baltimore (+3) at TAMPA BAY The story of the Raven’s off season has been the addition veteran QB Steve McNair. The untold story of the Raven’s off season is their curious decision to do nothing to upgrade their aging offensive line—led by the fossilized remains for former Pro Bowler Jonathon Ogden. I like the McNair move, but he struggled in his final years with the Titans because of a lack of supporting cast. I don’t see how it will be any different in Baltimore with the (lack of) talent around him—especially that O-line which can’t pass protect. On the other side, Chris Simms has three strikes against him, he’s inexperienced, he had only a 10-7 TD-to-INT ratio last season and his middle name is “Dav” (seriously). But he has a better line, better running game, and, IMO, a better defense. Tampa and the –3.

Nawlins (+3) at CLEVELAND The addition of Brees and Bush makes the Saints one of the most intriguing offenses in Madden ’07. Unfortunately, in the real world, the O-line won’t block anybody so Drew might be taking the snap and curling up into the fetal position before season’s end. I like Cleveland’s pick up of Hank Fraley, he’ll be solid in the middle of that o-line. I think their defense will improve, but I worry about their inexperience at the skill positions on offense and I’m not sold on Charlie Frye. I watched him play Cincinnati last season and I think every one of his completions came when he rolled out and threw a five or ten yard out. That’s fine against the Bengals, but good defensive teams will adjust and either pile-drive him with an OLB blitz or put their CBs in a short zone and pick him off. I’m not crazy about either, so I’ll take the Saints and the +3.

Buffalo (+9) at NEW ENGLAND The middle linebacker formerly known as London Fletcher changed his name to London Fletcher-Baker to honor his father and grandfather. While this story is touching, I just can’t bring myself to back a team whose defensive enforcer hyphenates his last name. The Bills do welcome back Peerless Price after a stint in Atlanta where he won the Alvin Harper award (given to the #2 receiver who dupes a team into thinking he’s a #1 and signing him for a lot of money and then promptly goes poof). That and I don’t know how many points I would need to get in order to bet on J.P. Losman at this juncture. The Pick: NEW ENGLAND –9. Also, if you are looking for a deep fantasy sleeper, nab Reche Caldwell of the Patriots in the later rounds. Prior to a season-ending injury, he was coming on for the Chargers last year.

Chicago (-3.5) at GREEN BAY Green Bay went 4-12 last season. This year they add Charles Woodson and A.J. Hawk to the mix. Way to aim for 5-11. Chicago and the –3.5.

San Fran (+9) at ARIZONA Zona is the chic pick as a sleeper for the second year in a row. While Edgerrin James is a nice addition, there are eleven teams in the Big Ten with a better offensive line. Fortunately, they get to play San Fran twice a year. San Fran keeps it close—Niners and the +9.

Dallas (+2.5) at JACKSONVILLE Dallas’s D should be very good this year. I think the TO situation will blow up before season’s end (lead pipe cinch). Jacksonville has a tough D as well, but they haven’t bothered to develop an offense. Dallas and the +2.5.

Indianapolis (-3) at NY GIANTS Manning Bowl. A big game. Lots of pressure. Is it possible for both Mannings to choke this one away? Colts and the –3. (Its clear I’m running out of gas here, right?)

Minnesota (+4.5) at WASHINGTON Congratulations to Daniel Snyder and the Redskins! The Browns kind of gave them a run for their money, but once again the ‘Skins WON THE OFFSEAON! Sure, they had to pay #1 receiver money to Randle-El (who will be their #3 receiver) and overpaid for Adam Archuleta—but that’s what you’ve got to do to repeat as offseason champs. I like Minnesota and the +4.5.

San Diego (-3) at OAKLAND Let’s see, if I pick the Chargers I’m betting on a team with a good defense and an excellent running game that features one of the best backs in the league. Their big question mark is the quarterback position with the debut of Phillip Rivers. I also get to bet against Aaron Brooks. And I’m only giving up 3 points? Take the money and run! San Diego and the –3.

"They shot me in [San Diego]"

Espn.com is reporting that Chargers LB Steve Foley was shot three times by an off-duty Sheriff who stopped him for suspicion of drunk driving. Foley, who was drafted by the Bengals ('natch), makes this his second brush with the law this offseason. He was previously arrested on April 21st and charged with resisting arrest, battery on a police officer and public drunkenness.

Its whats inside that counts...

I got a gift of some transparent puddings from my Aunt Charlene this week. If you've never had one, a transparent pudding is a desert popular in Northern Kentucky (with my family at least). It tastes like a pecan pie minus the pecans (the filling is made with sugar & eggs). If you enjoy sugar, you'd enjoy transparent pudding.

While I greatly appreciated the gift, the box they came in did give me some pause...

...not that it stopped me from eating them!

#1 Crush

Shaun Alexander should be the #1 overall pick in your fantasy draft. If he slides to you at two or even three, jump all over him and don’t be shy about ridiculing the clueless owners who passed on him. Lets look at the numbers:

Alexander

Rush Yds	Avg	TDs	Rec Yards	TDs
313	4.9	2	41	0
1318	4.3	14	343	2
1175	4.0	16	460	2
1435	4.4	14	295	2
1686	4.8	16	170	4
1880	5.1	27	78	1

Tomlinson

Rush Yds	Avg	TDs	Rec Yards	TDs
1236	3.6	10	367	0
1683	4.5	14	489	1
1645	5.3	13	725	4
1335	3.9	17	441	1
1462	4.3	18	370	2

Larry Johnson

Rush Yds	Avg	TDs	Rec Yards	TDs
85	4.3	1	2	0
581	4.8	9	278	2
1750	5.2	20	343	1

A good number of experts have LJ pegged as the #1 overall pick. Not only do I think Alexander should go in front of him, but I’d consider sliding Tomlinson ahead of LJ as well. I only see three negatives for Alexander. First, the much discussed departure of LG Steve Hutchinson. While I take nothing away from Hutchinson, the rest of the line is intact and led by one of the best LTs in the league in Walter Jones. While Hutchinson will be missed, the run blocking will still be amongst the best in the league. Second, is the fact that last season was a career year. Like Peyton Manning last season, I think we can expect Alexander’s numbers to come down a little after his impressive showing. Nevertheless, I think his numbers will be impressive (1400+ yards and in the 20 TD range seems assured. Third, SuperBowl hangover. This isn’t a made up phenomena, the extra games and carries that come with a long playoff run can take a lot out of a guy. Nevertheless, I think Alexander and his teammates will thrive in the weak NFC West.

There is a lot to like about Alexander. He is the marquee guy in very good offense (with really no Red Zone receiving threat to steal TDs a la Antonio Gates). The only real weakness in his game is that he doesn’t give you receiving numbers. He’s been consistently producing big numbers for years—and that is the key. Picking #1 overall you need to eliminate risk. Maybe LJ or LT will outproduce him, but both carry way more risk, so pick the guy who will give you the least heartburn.

I say LJ and LT carry more risk and I’m prepared to defend that statement. For LT, the big issue is his QB. If the Phillip Rivers experience takes off, then LT will be good for 1700 + total yards and close to 20 TDs. However, if the fans in powder blue are longing for the good old days of Drew Brees, LT could see his numbers—particularly the TDs—drop off in a big way. Still and all, I figure LT is less of a risk than LJ, so I’d slot him as the #2 pick overall.

As for LJ, he was the consensus #1 pick before the preseason. While people have made a lot of noise about Alexander losing Hutchinson, LJ has suffered more significant losses in the retirement of his two starting tackles. While you can’t make too much of the preseason, the Chiefs first unit has been anything but dominant. While LJ will still get his carries, I think he won’t replicate last years numbers. People are looking at his performance last season, particularly the last eight games, and expecting him to top 2000 yards on the ground. Unfortunately, great half seasons do not project to great full seasons—just ask anyone who drafted Kevin Jones after he led the league in rushing for the second half of 2004 (yours truly).

Picking first overall is the right time to avoid risk and reward consistency. Take Alexander and sleep well.

Fantasy File—Sleeper Wideouts

As we hit the last week of the fantasy draft stage of the season, here are my picks for “sleeper” wideouts…

Derrick Mason

Here is how some pundits rate Mason:

Foxsports.com #19 WR/#44 overall

Sportsline.com #20 WR/#64 overall

Espn.com (Eric Karabell) #80 overall

Year	Team	Rec.	Yards	TD
2002	Titans	79	1012	5
2003	Titans	95	1303	8
2004	Titans	96	1168	7
2005	Ravens	86	1073	3

Okay, so Mason isn’t exactly a sleeper, but I’ve included him to kick off the list because I think a lot of people forgot about him since his move to Baltimore. Don’t make that mistake come draft time. The sample of three rankings listed above offers a range of opinion on Mason’s value. If we assume a 12-team league, our experts rank Mason as high as the late 4^th round (Foxsports.com) and as low as the late 7^th round (Espn.com). I’m suggesting that you target Mason in the late 4^th-early 5^th round. Look at it this way: if you play in a standard league (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR and either a WR/TE or dedicated TE) then you are probably getting your second WR by round five. If you know what you are doing, you’ll get your top two RBs in the first couple rounds, then start filling in your QB and WR spots. If you are looking for a second WR at round 5, give Mason a close look.

Those numbers are pretty solid for a receiver who is now 31. While the ’05 numbers may seem pedestrian, lets remember that it was Mason’s first season with the Ravens and he had Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright slinging the ball to him. Another thing to consider is Quadry Ismail. Why do I bring up “the Missle”? He was the last Ravens receiver to crack the 1,000 yard plateau and he did it back in 2001. That’s a three season stretch (’02-’04) in which no Raven’s receiver could break 1,000 yards. Given the Raven’s historical lack of a passing game and the talent deficit he was working with in ’05, I think we can safely say that Mason’s slight dip in production was the fault of the inadequacy of the Raven’s O. With the addition of his old battery-mate, Steve McNair, I think Mason can improve on his 2005 numbers. Something in the neighborhood of 1200 yards and 7 TDs. He should make a solid selection from about late 4^th round on, and fit nicely on your squad as your #2 WR.

Antonio Bryant

Foxsports.com #44WR/#138 overall

Sportsline.com #43 WR#123 overall

Espn.com #132 overall

Year	Team	Rec.	Yards	TD
2002	Dallas	44	733	6
2003	Dallas	39	550	2
2004	Cleveland	58	812	4
2005	Cleveland	69	1009	4

Bryant has been bouncing around the league (third team in five years). He now finds himself in the woeful 49ers offense with young Alex Smith tossing him the rock. Our experts rank him in the #123-132 range—that would make him a 11^th rounder in a twelve team league. He is certainly more valuable than that. That late you will be picking up your fourth or fifth WR—Bryant is better than that. This guy will be the #1 option in the 49ers passing attack—rookie Vernon Davis may grab headlines, but he needs to grasp the offense first. I’m a big fan of grabbing receivers in the middle rounds who a) are the #1 or #1a option on their team and b) play for teams that will struggle mightily (and pass a lot in an effort to catchup). Bryant fits this bill perfectly. If Alex Smith improves this season (he can’t play any worse, can he?) Bryant may crack your starting lineup. Look for him in round eight.

Kevin Curtis

Foxsports.com #52 among WR/#146

Sportsline.com #49 WR/#148

Espn.com #108 Overall

Year	Team	Rec.	Yards	TD
2003	Rams	4	13	0
2004	Rams	32	421	2
2005	Rams	60	801	6

Our experts project Curtis from the late 9^th to early in the 13^th round. Curtis filled in nicely last year as the Rams starters got nicked-up and there is no reason to think that he won’t contribute again as Issac Bruce’s understudy. Bruce is in the twilight of a brilliant career, but I believe that age, injury and a new coaching staff (with no particular loyalty to Bruce for his past achievements) will lead to a diminished role for the future Hall-of-Famer. Don’t be shy about grabbing him in the 9^th or 10^th round. So long as you have your starting WRs and at least one good backup in front of him. He’s also a perfect guy if your league has “practice squad” slots.

Mark Clayton (TB)

Foxsports.com #67 among WR/#187

Sportsline.com #46 WR/#132 overall

Espn.com #100 overall

Year	Team	Rec.	Yards	TD
2004	Bucs	80	1193	7
2005	Bucs	32	372	0

After one of the all-time great rookies seasons for a wideout, Clayton broke a lot of hearts last season (yours truly included). However, that dip in performance wasn’t all sophomore jinx, Clayton suffered through a shoulder injury, a QB carosel, and Joey Galloway finding the fountain of youth in the City of Tampa. A healthier Clayton should return to his rookie form, and in Jon Gruden’s possession-receiver friendly offense that should make fantasy owners happy. Clayton is a nifty pickup once you hit the 11^th round.