The Edge

The Cardinals made perhaps the biggest splash in free agency this offseason with the signing of RB Edgerrin James. As is often the case, this big signing has been followed by usual rumblings that this could be Arizona’s year. For myself, I’m not ready jump on the Cardinal bandwagon. It was just last year that the Cardinals, riding the waive of euphoria produced when Denny Green rode into town on his white horse, were the sexy sleeper pick in the NFC.

Green is best remembered for his glory days with the Vikings, where his teams were defined by high-octane offense. In addition to the aerial displays put on by the likes of Randall Cunningham, Dante Culpepper, Cris Carter and Randy Moss, Denny’s Vikes had pretty solid running attack as well. Look at the Vikings number in Denny’s last three years with the club:

1999: 422 rushes, 1804 yards, 4.3 ypc, 13 TDs

2000: 428 rushes, 2129 yards, 5.0 ypc, 14 TDs

2001*: 376 rushes, 1609 yards, 4.3 ypc, 10 TDs

(*Green resigned before the final game of the ’01 season, but the numbers here reflect the team totals for the entire regular season.)

And here are the Cardinals number from 2005:

2005: 360 rushes, 1138 yards, 3.2 ypc, 2 TDs

The first set of numbers tell us that Green new how to make a running game work, not surprising for a guy who managed an unusually long tenure in the NFL. The second set tell us that Denny hasn’t worked his magic on the Cardinals running game…yet.

Enter Edgerrin James.

Just last year, James managed 1506 yards, 4.2 ypc and 13 TDs on 360 carries—he toted the rock as many times as the entire Cardinals roster! Understandably, a number of folks are looking at those numbers and projecting James will have similar success with the Cardinals, but here is where it gets dicey. James has had the luxury of one of the leagues better offenses working around him, not so in Arizona. While the Cardinal’s aerial attack can be explosive, it doesn’t compare to what Manning & Co. bring to the table. When opponents line up against the Cardinals this season, their first concern will be putting a stop to #32. He will also be transitioning from a top-tier run-blocking line to perhaps the worst in the league. Look at it this way: the Cardinals running attack was atrocious last year. It may be that Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington are just stiffs, but no more so than Dominic Rhodes and (the ganja free) Ricky Williams—and the Colts line was able to make those two look at least serviceable. The Cardinals haven’t exactly addressed this problem, adding only Deuce Lutui (G) in the draft and Milford Brown (G)—the later being a run-blocker so mediocre the Texans could afford to part with him.

As good as Edge is, he’s going to be taking more hits in the backfield and seeing more eight man fronts than he ever did in Indianapolis. He’ll also be on a squad that is more likely to be playing catch up in the fourth quarter as opposed to grinding the clock to protect a lead. Even if he manages to stay healthy, he’s looking at fewer attempts, narrower (or non-existent) running lanes, and less help around him. Add it all up and I think 2006 will be a down year for he and the Cardinals. Maybe Denny can work his magic, but it won’t kick in til 2007—and then they’ll be my sleeper pick (bandwagon seats still available).